摘要:基于新疆于田县15个乡镇600户农户调研数据，借用离散选择模型中的多元Logit（MNL）模型分析农户应对气候变化的适应性选择过程中，其个体特征、所处外部环境等因素对某类适应性行为偏好的影响。结果表明，农业生产经验、教育和信贷支持程度对改变种植结构有正向影响；农业生产时长和借贷能力越强的农户，以及居住在绿洲-荒漠交错带的农户增加灌溉意愿强烈；性别、家庭年均纯收入、能否获得借贷是影响地膜覆盖面积的主要因素；受教育程度和家庭年均纯收入越高的农户，越愿意通过增加农作物多样性以应对气候变化，而与亲戚朋友和邻居交往越密切的农户更易对改变播种期持怀疑和反对意见；山区和绿洲-荒漠交错带的农户对家畜圈养适应性选择偏好最低。

关键词:农户  适应性行为  选择偏好

AbstractBased on the field survey data from 600 farmer households in 15 Townships, using the Multivariate Logit (MNL) Model of the discrete choice model, analyzed the impacts of the factors of individual characteristics and external environment to a kind of adaptive behavior preference in the procedure of the farmer householders response to the climate change adaptive choice. The results showed that: The agricultural production experiences, education level and the credit support degree had the positive effects to change the planting structure. The farmer householder with longer agricultural production time and stronger borrowing capacity, and living in oasis and desert ecotone had the stro ng aspiration to increase irrigation. The gender, annual family average net income and whether to obtain the loan were the main factors to influence the plastic film mulching areas. The framer householders with higher education level and annual average net income had more aspiration to increase crop diversity responding climate change. And the farmer householders more closely contacted with relative friends and neighbors, were more easy to hold the opinion of doubt and objection for changing seeding time. The farmer householders living in mountains and oasis desert ecotone had the lowest adaptive choice preference for the livestocks in captivity.

Key wordsfarmer householder  adaptation behavior  choice preference

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn