摘要:利用1988—2011年统计资料，采用多元统计分析与文献调查方法，分析焉耆盆地近20多年来耕地时空变化情况及其驱动机理，并讨论耕地动态变化对研究区生态环境的影响。结果表明：(1) 1988—2011年间，焉耆盆地耕地面积动态变化存在着明显的波动状态，大体上呈增加趋势。耕地面积从1988年的76.25×10⁴ hm²增加至2011年的135.70×10⁴ hm²，增加幅度为178%，净增加59.45×10⁴ hm²，各县耕地面积变化趋势基本相同；(2) 影响焉耆盆地耕地动态变化的驱动因子可归纳为政策变动 、经济发展、人口增长、农业科技进步等四大因素；(3) 耕地动态变化在某种程度上改善焉耆盆地生态环境同时，导致了绿洲外围沙漠化，绿洲内部土壤盐渍化，湖泊、湿地减少等一系列生态环境问题，威胁了绿洲稳定性。

关键词:耕地  动态变化  驱动力  生态效应  焉耆盆地

AbstractUsing statistic data and based on multivariate statistical analysis and literature survey, the dynamics and drivers of farmland changes in Yanqi Basin within 1988—2011 were analyzed and the effects of farmland change on eco-environment were studied. Results showed that: (1) The changes o f farmland area in Yanqi Basin within 1988—2011 were fluctuated, and total area of farmland increased during the study period. The total area of farmland increased from 76.25×10⁴ hm² in 1988 to 135.70×10⁴ hm² in 2011, while it increased 178% with the net increase of 59.45×10⁴ hm², and the changing trends of total farmland area were similar among counties; (2) The main drivers of farmland dynamics in Yanqi Basin including government policy, economic development, population increase and the progress in agricultural techniques; (3) Farmland dynamics has improved the eco-environment of Yanqi Basin to some extent, whereas resulted in a series of eco-environmental problems such as desertification around the outer oasis, salinization in the inner oasis, and degradation of lake and wetland, which have been threatening the stability of the oasis. Results of the study could provide scientific basis for reasonable use of farmland resources of oasis, and for maintaining ecological security and sustainable development of oases in arid land.

Key wordsfarmland  dynamic change  drivers  ecological effects  Yanqi Basin

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn