摘要:以讨赖河流域1976年Landsat MSS、1989年、2000年和2010年的Landsat TM 4期遥感影像为数据源，运用土地利用变化幅度、动态度、转移矩阵等方法，并结合景观指数，采用主成分分析方法，分析了流域1976—2010年间的土地 利用/覆被和景观格局的变化及其驱动力。结果表明：近34年，研究区耕地和城乡建设用地 所占比例持续上升，分别由4％和0.04％增加到7.4％和0.26％；冰川和永久性积雪、草地面 积则分别减少897.98 km²和383.69 km²。各土地利用类型中以城乡建设用地的动态度最 高，达16.13％，耕地次之。土地利用类型间主要转移方向为：冰川和永久性积雪转化为裸 岩石砾地，戈壁转化为耕地，林地与草地间相互转化。整个景观的斑块密度先增大后降低， 最大斑块指数先减小后增大，景观趋于更加破碎，景观的多样性先减小，后增加。人口增长 和经济发展因素是研究区土地利用/覆被变化的最直接驱动力，同时也受气候因素的影响。

关键词:土地利用  景观格局  动态变化  驱动力  讨赖河

AbstractBased on the MSS images in 1976 and the TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, the changes of land use/coverage and landscape pattern and their driving force in Taolai River Basin were analyzed from 1976 to 2010 by using principal component analysis method in combination with landscape indexes and the methods of variation amplitude, dynamic degree and transfer matrix. The results indicated that during the recent 34 years after 1976, the proportions of cultivated land and construction land expanded sharply from 4% and 0.04% to 7.4% and 0.26%, respectively; while the area of glaciers and permanent snow and grassland decreased by 897.98×10⁴ hm² and 383.7×10⁴ hm², respectively. Among the various types of land use, construction land was the highest in dynamic degree (16.13%), followed by cultivated land. The conversion of glaciers and permanent snow into bare rocks, the conversion of gobi into cultivated land and the conversion between forestland and grassland were the main trends of land us e variation. The patch density of total landscape increased at first and decreas ed later, while the largest path index decreased at first and expended later. Th erefore, the shape of landscape became more and more irregular, and the degree o f landscape diversity decreased at first increased later. The population growth and economic development were the most direct driving forces of land use/coverag e changes in Taolai River Basin, and climatic factors also affected land use/cov erage changes to some extend.

Key wordsland use  landscape pattern  dynamic change  driving force  Taolai River Basin

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn