摘要:农业资源、产业发展及其耦合态势是水土保持政策措 施实施效果最直接的反映，本文以安塞县为对象，运用耦合协调度模型就农业资源-产业系 统对水土保持措施的响应过程和机制进行了时序性分析。结果表明：农业资源-产业系统对 水土保持作出了积极响应，但其对不同水土保持措施的响应效果和机理不同，总体上遵循了 衰退过度到勉强协调→初级协调发展→良好协调发展的路径，但耦合作用的强度与耦合协调 程度并不一一对应，存在着交错分布的特点；同时，农业资源与产业及两者的耦合协调度演 化趋势都预示着系统演变过程中潜伏着较大危机。为此，在完善产业链网结构的同时可通过 建设农村土地市场和明晰林业产权等手段减少资源的闲置和浪费，保证资源与产业协调可持 续发展。

关键词:农业资源-产业系统  耦合协调度  水土保持  退耕还林（草）  安塞县

AbstractThe effects of soil and water conservation measures can be reflected by agricultural resources, industrial development and their coupling situation. By using the Coupling Coordination Model, the response and mechanism of agricultural resources and industry coupling system to soil and water conservation measures in Ansai County, Shaanxi Province were investigated at time series. The results showed that the agricultural resources and industry system positively responded to water and soil conservation, but the effects and mechanism of various measures were rather different. Generally, it abided by the following route: from over-recession to inadequate coordination → elementary coordination → favorable coordination. However, the coupling intensity and coordinati on degree were not exactly corresponding with each other and there existed a feature of staggered distribution. In addition, a potential crisis in the system could be predicted by the evolution trend of agricultural resources, industry and their coupling coordination. Therefore, in order to realize a harmonious and sustainable development of resources and industry, the agricultural structure shoul d be optimized, and the inadequate utilization of agricultural resources should be reduced by the measures such as fostering rural land market, clarifying forestry property and so forth.

Key wordsagricultural resources and industry system  coupling coordination degree  soil and water conservation  grain for green project  Ansai county

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn