摘要:通过对试验基地中宁1981—2008年气象资料和红枣产量资料的分析，结合历年主要农业气象灾害记录，得出了5类影响红枣产量的主要农业气象灾害，分别是萌芽展叶期高温(B₁)、盛花期空气的高温低湿B₂)、盛花期连阴雨(B₃)、果实生长期连阴雨(B₄)、果实成熟期连阴雨(B₅)；采用层次分析法对上述气象灾害进行量化分析，得到其对红枣生产的影响权重顺序：B₅>B₄>B₂>B₃>B₁；将趋势产量 进行灾害订正，预测红枣各生育期的实际产量，并建立了基于农业气象灾害的中宁红枣的动 态产量预报模型，可为实际预报业务提供参考依据。

关键词:红枣  产量  农业气象灾害

AbstractThrough the analysis of meteorological data and yield of red jujube in the experimental station in Zhongning County of Ningxia, combined with the records of main agrometeorological disasters, it was discovered that there were mainly 5 kinds of agrometeorological disasters affecting the productivity of red jujube, i.e., high temperature in sprouting and leaf expansion stage (B₁), high temperature and low humidity in florescence stage (B₂), continuous rain in florescence stage (B₃), continuous rain in fruit growing stage (B₄), and continuous rain in maturity stage (B₅). The analytic hierarch y process (AHP) was adopted for quantitative analysis of these disasters, which indicated that the influencing weight of different disasters to the production of red jujube was sequenced as B₅>B₄>B₂>B₃>B₁. The trend yields were co rrected so as to forecast the actual output of red jujube in different stages, and to set up the models of dynamic forecast of productivity, which could be used as references in actual forecasting activities.

Key wordsred jujube  productivity  agro meteorological disaste rs

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn