摘要:利用河北省棉区1961—2010年15个站点逐日气象资料，分析了河北省不同棉区气候周期振荡及突变点，结果表明：不同棉区棉花全生育期气温、降水、日照均存在多个时间尺度的周期变化特征，交替现象明显；全生育期平均气温年代际以及年际主要周期：冀南、冀中棉区为20～22 a、9～10 a、5～7 a，冀东棉区为22～24 a、11～14 a，全生育期平均气温升高明显，在1996年发生了突变，转入气温相对较高期。全生育期降水主要周期：冀南棉区为14～15 a，冀中、冀东棉区为22～24 a、8～10 a。全生育期日照存在9～10 a振荡周期，且1986年前后发生突变，转入相对偏少期。

关键词:气候周期  气候突变  小波分析

AbstractUsing the daily climatic data of 15 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 in cotton-growing areas of Hebei Province, has analyzed the climatic period wave and abrupt changing point in different cotton areas. The result showed that: The temperature, rainfall and sunshine jn whole cotton growing season equally existed the periodic changing characteristics of multi-time scale in different cotton-growing areas, and alternate phenomenon was obvious. The decade and interannual main periods of mean temperature during whole growth stage were: In Jinan and Jizhong cotton areas were 20 to 22 yaers, 9 to 10 years and 5 to 7 years. In Jidong cotton area was 22 to 24 years and 11 to 14 years. The mean temperature in whole growth period was obvious increase and in 1996 was occurred the abrupt change to turn into the relative higher period. The main period of precipitation in whole growing stage was: In Jinan cotton area was 14 to 15 years, and in Jizhong and Jidong cotton areas were 22 to 24 years and 8 to 10 years. The sunshine in whole growth stage existed the climatic period wave of 9 to 10 years also before and after 1986 occurred the abrupt change to turn into the relative less period.

Key wordsclimatic period  climate abrupt change  wavelet analysis

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn