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AbstractBase on 10-days meteorological data of average air temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in summer maize growth period from 1990 to 2006 from 13 Cities of Henan Province, the key meteorological factors affected maize yield has been confirmed though the correlation analysis, also has established the meteorological yield prediction model for summer maize from the middle 10-days of July to the middle 10-days of September. The whole province can be divided into three regions from south to north. The forecast accuracy of the model was carried out the back substitution test by the regional return test from the data of 1990 to 2006, also the model was carried out the predictions test by the data of 2007 to 2010. The test results showed that: The accuracy rate of the model back substitution test in whole province was 88.4%. The difference of the back substitution test accurate rate was obvious between different regions, the maximum in north region was 92.9%, middle region was 87.4% belong second, and south region was lowest as 83.4%. Analyzing the causes, major affected by the yearly fluctuation of the summer maize yield. The model prediction accuracy rate was 94.9% in whole province, and it has no obvious differences for each region, the basic accuracy was about 95%.
文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A
**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen firstname.lastname@example.org
LI Shu-yan, LIU Wei-chang.Research on the yield prediction of summer maize in Henan Province based on meteorological key factors[J].杂志名称,2014,21(5):223-227