摘要:参数率定及敏感性分析是用来提高模型精度，确定模型关键参数及改善模型结构的非常有效的方法。本文基于SUFI-2算法，通过SWAT模型对陕西黑河流域进行了模拟，同时基于SUFI-2算法对模型参数进行了敏感性分析，结果表明：(1) 影响黑河流域径流模拟结果精度的主影响因子是scs径流曲线参数；(2) 用2005年到2011年的实测径流资料对模型进行了率定与验证,模拟确定性系数R²和模型效率系数ENS均高于0.8；(3) 通过SUFI-2算法与SCE-UA算法比较，发现SUFI-2算法所需时间短，精度更高。

关键词:SUFI-2算法  径流模拟  敏感性分析  参数率定

AbstractParameter calibration and sensitivity analysis are very effective methods to improve the accuracy of the model, to determine the key parameters of the model and improve the model structure. Through the SWAT model, this paper simulated the Heihe River Basin, meanwhile carried out the sensitivity analysis for the model parameters based on the SUFI-2 Algorithm. The results shown that：(1) The main factor affecting the accuracy of the runoff simulation results in the Heihe River Basin was the parameter of the scs runoff curve. (2) The model was calibrated and validated by using the measured runoff data of 2005 to 2011, the simulated determination coefficient (R²) and model efficiency coefficients (ENS) were total higher than 0.8. (3) By comparing the SUFI-2 Algorithm with SCE-UA Algorithm, we can find out the SUFI-2 Algorithm with higher accuracy and using short time.

Key wordsSUFI-2 Algorithm  runoff simulation  sensitivity analysis  parameter calibration

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn