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李彬，史海滨，李祯，张建国，周俊.基于权马尔科夫链模型的河套灌区上中下游地下水埋深预测研究[J].大中文模板3,2014,(5):206-212. [点击复制]
LI Bin, SHI Hai-bin, LI Zhen, ZHANG Jian-guo, ZHOU Jun.Prediction research on the groundwater table in upstream, midstream and down stream of Hetao Irrigation District based on weighted Markov Chain Model[J].大中文模板3,2014,(5):206-212. [点击复制]

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基于权马尔科夫链模型的河套灌区上中下游地下水埋深预测研究
李彬^1,2，史海滨¹，李祯¹，张建国³，周俊⁴
0 字体:加大+\|默认\|缩小-
(（1.内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018; 2.内蒙古农牧业科学院资源环境与检测技术研究所，内蒙古呼和浩特 010031; 3.巴彦淖尔市水利科学研究所，内蒙古临河 015000; 4.内蒙古河套灌区解放闸管理局，内蒙古杭锦后旗 015400）)

摘要:

以拓展和深化区域地下水埋深预测研究为目的，运用随机理论，建立了基于加权马尔科夫链的地下水埋深预测模型，预测内蒙古河套灌区上中下游在未来时段内地下水埋深所处区间值。结果表明：节水改造后灌区中游区的地下水埋深更多的时候处于［2.380， 2.742)区间，下游区的地下水埋深更多的时候处于［2.218， 2.506)区间，这两个区间的数值都低于内蒙古河套灌区的临界地下水埋深2.0 m，在未来的一段时间河套灌区中下游的盐渍化有望进一步减轻。而上游区的地下水埋深更多的时候处于［1.227， 1.727)区间，此区间的数值高于内蒙古河套灌区的临界地下水埋深2.0 m，在未来的时间河套灌区上游是控制地下水埋深的重点区域。

关键词: 节水改造地下水埋深马尔科夫链预测河套灌区

DOI：

基金项目:国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目（2011BAD29B03）；内蒙古科技攻关与政府专项科研项目（nsn200767）

Prediction research on the groundwater table in upstream, midstream and down stream of Hetao Irrigation District based on weighted Markov Chain Model

LI Bin^1,2, SHI Hai-bin¹, LI Zhen¹, ZHANG Jian-guo³, ZHOU Jun⁴

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Abstract:

This paper taken expanding and deepening the regional prediction research on the groundwater table as the purpose, adopted the random theory to establish the groundwater table prediction model based on the weighted Markov Chain to predict the interval value of groundwater table in the upstream, midstream and downstream of Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia. The result showed that: After the water saving rehabilitation, the groundwater table in midstream of Irrigation District will be at the interval of 2.380 to 2.742 and the groundwater table in downstream will be at the interval of 2.218 to 2.506. These two interval values are total larger than the critical groundwater dept h of 2.0 m in Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia. So the salinization in middle and down stream of the Hetao Irrigation District will be expected to further alleviate in future. While the groundwater table in upstream will be at the interval of 1.227 to 1.727. These interval values are total less than 2.0 m which is the critical groundwater depth in the Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia. Therefore, the upstream of Hetao Irrigation District will be the key control region for groundwater table in future.

Key words: water-saving rehabilitation groundwater table Markov Chain prediction Hetao Irrigation District

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