| 引用本文： |
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谭灵芝，马长发，王国友.新疆于田绿洲农户应对气候变化适应性行为选择偏好测量研究[J].大中文模板3,2014,(5):198-205. [点击复制]
- TAN Ling-zhi, MA Chang-fa, WANG Guo-you.Research on farmer householders’choice preference response to climate change adaptation behavior in Yutian Oasis of Xinjiang[J].大中文模板3,2014,(5):198-205. [点击复制]
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| 摘要: |
| 基于新疆于田县15个乡镇600户农户调研数据，借用离散选择模型中的多元Logit（MNL）模型分析农户应对气候变化的适应性选择过程中，其个体特征、所处外部环境等因素对某类适应性行为偏好的影响。结果表明，农业生产经验、教育和信贷支持程度对改变种植结构有正向影响；农业生产时长和借贷能力越强的农户，以及居住在绿洲-荒漠交错带的农户增加灌溉意愿强烈；性别、家庭年均纯收入、能否获得借贷是影响地膜覆盖面积的主要因素；受教育程度和家庭年均纯收入越高的农户，越愿意通过增加农作物多样性以应对气候变化，而与亲戚朋友和邻居交往越密切的农户更易对改变播种期持怀疑和反对意见；山区和绿洲-荒漠交错带的农户对家畜圈养适应性选择偏好最低。 |
| 关键词: 农户 适应性行为 选择偏好 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家社科基金重大项目“我国分省经济发展方式转变与产业、人口、教育、就业和迁移政策仿真模型及技术支撑平台构建研究”（13&ZD156）; 国家自然科学基金项目“西部地区承接中东部产业受阻背景下的新疆差别化土地政策构建”（71263049）；教育部人文社科青年项目“三峡库区环境区居民传统环境权利剥夺的生态补偿制度研究”（10YJC790250） |
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| Research on farmer householders’choice preference response to climate change adaptation behavior in Yutian Oasis of Xinjiang |
| TAN Ling-zhi1, MA Chang-fa2, WANG Guo-you3 |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the field survey data from 600 farmer households in 15 Townships, using the Multivariate Logit (MNL) Model of the discrete choice model, analyzed the impacts of the factors of individual characteristics and external environment to a kind of adaptive behavior preference in the procedure of the farmer householders response to the climate change adaptive choice. The results showed that: The agricultural production experiences, education level and the credit support degree had the positive effects to change the planting structure. The farmer householder with longer agricultural production time and stronger borrowing capacity, and living in oasis and desert ecotone had the stro
ng aspiration to increase irrigation. The gender, annual family average net income and whether to obtain the loan were the main factors to influence the plastic film mulching areas. The framer householders with higher education level and annual average net income had more aspiration to increase crop diversity responding climate change. And the farmer householders more closely contacted with relative friends and neighbors, were more easy to hold the opinion of doubt and objection for changing seeding time. The farmer householders living in mountains and oasis desert ecotone had the lowest adaptive choice preference for the livestocks in captivity. |
| Key words: farmer householder adaptation behavior choice preference |
