摘要:利用阿勒泰地区1963—2012年7个气象站的最大冻土深度、平均气温，极端最低气温资料，采用回归分析、相关性检验、Mann-Kendall突变检测、Hurst提出的R/S分析等方法，对阿勒泰地区最大冻土深度的时间演变、空间分布及与气温的关系进行了分析。结果表明:吉木乃站的均方差和变差系数最大；阿勒泰地区最大冻土深度以0.574 cm·a^-1的速度显著减少；年最大冻土深度几乎出现在2—3月；阿勒泰地区的最大冻土深度的突变时间是在1986—1987年，发生了下降趋势的突变，福海和富蕴站没有发生突变；阿勒泰地区年极端最大值、最大值的平均值、平均最大值均出现在青河站；年最大冻土深度与平均气温和极端最低气温呈显著负相关，其相关系数分别为-0.508和-0.293。

关键词:最大冻土深度  时空分布  气温  阿勒泰地区

AbstractBased on the Maximum Frozen Soil Depth and annual mean temperature and Extreme low temperature across seven meteorological stations in Altay region from 1963—2012, using linear regression, Mann-Kendall mutation detection, Hurst R/S analysis method, the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maximum depth and temperatures of frozen soil were analyzed. The results show: the mean-square deviation and coefficient of variation of maximum appears in Jimunai; the maximum depth have declined by 0.574 cm·a^-1; The annual maximum frozen depth almost always occurs in February and March; Maximum Frozen Soil Depth appear an abrupt decrease in 1986—1987s in Altay region; the deepest of annual Extreme and maximum of average and average of maximum depth appears in Qinghe;The Maximum Frozen Soil Depth and are negatively correlated with annual mean temperature and Extreme low temperature and the correlation coefficients are -0.508 and -0.293.

Key wordsmaximum frozen soil depth  spatial-temporal distribution  temperature  altay region

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn