摘要:在综合考虑河北自然条件、社会经济条件，并借鉴已有干旱灾害恢复力研究成果的基础上，依据数据的可取性和详尽程度，选取降水量、复种指数、单位面积粮食产量、人均粮食产量、有效灌溉率、劳动力比重、农民人均收入和农业产投比等八个指标，构建农业旱灾灾后恢复力评价指标体系。通过层次分析法确定各指标的权重，构建可变模糊评价模型，对河北省11个市干旱灾害灾后恢复力进行评估。结果表明，石家庄旱灾灾后恢复力最高，级别特征值为4.2329，其次是唐山市为4.0046，张家口市恢复力最低，级别特征值为1.8079，各地区旱灾灾后恢复力差异明显。而在影响恢复力高低的因素中，发现不同的因素对旱灾灾后恢复力的影响程度是不同的。降水量是影响农业干旱灾害灾后恢复力的最主要自然因素，有效灌溉率在农业干旱灾害灾后恢复力评价指标体系中占较大的权重，对灾后恢复力的影响较大，农民人均收入和人均粮食产量对灾后的救助及农民生活的恢复重建也具有较重要的调节作用。

关键词:旱灾  灾后恢复力  层次分析法  可变模糊评价

AbstractTaking into consideration the natural and social economic conditions, eight indexes including precipitation, multiple cropping index, yield per unit area, per capita yield, effective irrigation rate, labor force proportion, per capita income of farmers, and ratio of agriculture output to input, were used to evaluate agricultural drought resilience. By using analytic hierarchy process, the weight of each index was determined, and the variable fuzzy assessment model was used for 11 cities of Hebei Province. The results indicated that there were significant differences among cities, with Shijiazhuang showing the highest value of 4.2329, Tangshan the second 4.0046, and Zhangjiakou the lowest 1.8079. We also found that effect of influencing factors on drought resilience varied. Precipitation was the most influencing factor, and effective irrigation rate as well as per capita income of farmers and ratio of agriculture output to input also showed considerable effects.

Key wordsdrought disaster  drought resilience  assessment  the analytic hierarchy process  variable fuzzy method

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn