摘要:通过对渭北旱塬区永寿、风翔、蒲城、旬邑4个农业气象试验站1971年到2010年冬小麦观测数据以及30个县市区同期气象资料同步观测分析，得出渭北旱塬区气候近40年来增温明显，且以冬季和春季增温最为显著。受气候变化影响，本区域冬小麦播种期、越冬期推迟，返青期、拔节期、抽穗期、成熟期等发育期普遍提前，以返青期提前最为显著，相关性分析显示，除了冬前生长期，冬小麦越冬期以及春季各发育期间隔和发育期平均气温相关显著，而且春季的相关性明显比冬季显著，但表现在发育期间隔方面，却是冬小麦越冬期呈显著缩短趋势，而返青后各发育期间隔没有明显变化。结论认为：气候变暖一方面有利于越冬农作物安全越冬，减少冻害对农业生产的影响，而且温度升高，也增加了农业生产积温，使农作物可生长期延长，有利于提高复种指数；另一方面，由于旱塬区春季气温变率较大，发育期提前将导致作物受冻害的气候风险增大，尤其果树开花期遭受冻害，将对产量构成严重威胁。冬季气温持续上升，将导致冬小麦条锈病孢子和林果病虫害等安全越冬，对病虫害防治工作带来很大难度。因此，气候变暖对旱塬农业生产将产生深刻的影响，应引起高度关注。

关键词:全球变暖  物候期  渭北旱塬  生态响应

AbstractThrough the observation and analysis for the measured data of winter wheat in four agro-meteorological experiment stations as Yongshou, Fengxiang, Pucheng and Xunyi in the weibei dry plateau areas from 1971 to 2010 and the meteorological data in 30 Counties and City’s Districts in corresponding periods, have obtained that: In recent 40 years, the temperature evidently increased in these areas, especially the temperature increase in Winter and Spring season, were the most remarkable. Affected by climate change, the sowing time and wintering period of the winter wheat was delayed, but the turning green period, jointing stage, heading stage and the maturation period total were advanced. Among them, the turning green stage was the most distinct. Shown by the correlation analysis, except the growth stage before winter, the Wintering period as well as the Spring season, each interval with the average temperature in growth period has close relationship. Furthermore, the relationship in Spring was more obvious than in Winter. But expressed in the growth period interval, the wintering period of winter wheat was obviously decreased. While after turning green period the growth stage interval has no any obvious change. It can be concluded that: The climate warming will be useful the wintering crop to safe in Winter season, also reduce the impact of freeze injury to the agricultural production. Further more the temperature increase will be added the accumulated temperature for the agricultural production, it will be lengthened the crop growth period and useful to increase the multiple crop index. In other hand, because variety rate of temperature in Spring season will be rather big in dry plateau area, so advancing growth stage will cause the increase for the crop freeze risk, especially if the flower stage of the fruit trees suffer the freeze injury, will be cause serious threat for the yield. If the temperature in Winter season continue to increase, will cause the winter wheat stripe rust spore and fruit diseases and pests, to bring big difficulty for the prevention and control of pests and diseases. Therefore, the climate warming will be produced deep influence for the agricultural production in dry plateau, so should be caused high attention.

Key wordsglobal warming  phenological phase  Weibei dry plateau area  ecological response

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn