摘要:在阐述干旱灾害风险基本概念的基础上，分析了农业干旱灾害风险动态评估的难点。通过作物生长模型——DNDC模型模拟作物逐日生长，得到最终的粮食产量。采用情景分析方法，对不同气象条件下的作物产量进行估计，进而计算作物粮食因旱损失，实现农业干旱灾害风险动态分析。研究选择辽宁省为研究区，以玉米作物为代表，空间分析单元为县级行政区，利用15年的序列数据进行粮食因旱损失评估，模型模拟辽宁省的总误差控制在15%左右。风险分析结果表明，辽宁省西北部地区干旱灾害风险高于其他地区，这也与辽宁省干旱实际情况相吻合。

关键词:干旱灾害  风险  作物生长模型  农业  辽宁省

AbstractThis paper reviewed the basic concepts of the drought disaster risk and addressed the difficulties of dynamical assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk. To obtain the final yields of crop, the DNDC model was used to simulate the crop daily growth. The dynamical assessment of agricultural drought disaster risk was derived from the estimation of the crop yields under different weather conditions by using scenario analysis method and the further calculation of the yield losses caused by drought. A 15-years sequence data of maize growth in Liaoning Province, counties as the spatial analysis units, was used in this paper to assess the losses caused by drought. The total error of model simulation was about 16%. The risk analysis results showed that the drought disaster risk in northwest region of Liaoning Province was higher than in other regions, which is consistent with the real drought situation of Liaoning Province.

Key wordsdrought disasters  risk  crop growth model  agriculture  Liaoning Province

文章编号： 0258_7106 (2016) 01_0018_15 中图分类号： P618.41 文献标志码：A

改回日期：2015_07_11

基金项目

**通讯作者耿新霞， 女， 1979年生， 助理研究员， 成矿规律研究方向。 Email： gen gxinxia@cags.ac.cn