| 摘要: |
| 水资源短缺已成为制约内陆干旱区农业可持续发展的关键因子。本文在借鉴罗默的“增长阻力”概念模型的基础上，以地处黑河中游的民乐县和临泽县为典型研究区域，利用2000—2010年的农业生产面板数据集，度量了水资源紧缺对内陆干旱区农业生产的制约程度。结果表明，由于水资源要素的限制，民乐县和临泽县的农业总产值平均每年的增速要比上年降低0.9979个百分点和0.6228个百分点。在此基础上，对“增长阻力”的影响因素进行了进一步分析，并从节水设施改造，构建农田水利设施的长效机制，发展特色节水农业，提高水资源社会化管理水平和营造节水型社会建设的氛围五个方面，就如何减少水资源要素对农业发展的“增长阻力”提出了相应的政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 水资源 内陆干旱区 农业生产 增长阻力 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金青年项目(10CJY047) |
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| The growth drag of water resources to the agricultural development in inland of arid regions——An empirical study for the middle stream of Heihe River |
| LIU Qi-Jun, LI Zhao-Nan |
| () |
| Abstract: |
| Water resources shortage is a key restrict factor for the agricultural sustainable development in inland of arid regions. In this paper, based on the concept model of growth drag by Romer，have measured the restrictive degree of water resources shortage to agricultural production in inland of arid region, taking the Minle County and Linze County in the middle stream of Heihe River as the typical research areas, by using the agricultural production data of 2000—2010. The results showed that: The average annual increasing growth rates of total agricultural output value in Minle County and Linze County was lower than the previous year 0.9979 and 0.6228 percentage respectively, because of water resources restraint. On the basis of these, was systematically analyzed the influence factors to growth drag, finally from the five aspects as improving the water saving establishment, structuring the long mechanism for irrigation and drainage installations, developing the feature water saving agriculture, increasing the social management level for the water resources and constructing the atmosphere of water saving society, put forward the related policy suggestions for how to reduce the restriction of water resource shortage to agricultural development in this regions. |
| Key words: water resources inland arid regions agricultural production growth drag |
