引用本文：

姚玉璧，李耀辉，石界，王莺，王劲松，丁文魁，杨金虎.基于GIS的石羊河流域干旱灾害风险评估与区划[J].大中文模板3,2014,(2):21-28. [点击复制]
YAO Yu-bi, LI Yao-hui, SHI Jie, WANG Ying, WANG Jing-song, DING Wen-kui, YANG Jin-hu.Assessment and division of drought hazard risk in Shiyang River basin based on GIS[J].大中文模板3,2014,(2):21-28. [点击复制]

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基于GIS的石羊河流域干旱灾害风险评估与区划
姚玉璧^1，2，李耀辉¹，石界²，王莺¹，王劲松¹，丁文魁³，杨金虎²
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(（1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃兰州 730020; 2．甘肃省定西市气象局，甘肃定西 7430002; 3.甘肃省武威市气象局，甘肃武威 733000）)

摘要:

利用石羊河流域区1960—2011年气候要素资料，分析了石羊河流域干旱灾害空间分布、年际和年代际变化特征；结合致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体的暴露度和防灾减灾能力评价等指标进行基于GIS的石羊河流域干旱灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明：1960—2011年，石羊河流域春旱发生频率在21.2%～67.3%之间。春季特旱发生频率下游区域大于中上游区域。初夏干旱发生频率在13.5%～61.5%之间。初夏特旱发生频率下游区域也大于中上游区域。伏旱发生频率在21.2%～86.5%之间。伏期特旱发生频率下游区域亦大于中上游区域。石羊河流域干旱综合风险高风险区为民勤县和金川区大部、凉州区中北部、永昌县东部，位于石羊河流域的中下游区域。就各县区而言，干旱灾害综合风险最大的区域为石羊河下游的民勤县，金川区次之，天祝县风险低。

关键词: 干旱灾害分布特征风险评估石羊河流域

DOI：

基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2012CB955903、2013CB430206）；中国清洁发展机制基金（1213112）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201006023）；国家自然科学基金 (41175081)；干旱气象科学研究基金项目（IAM201111）

Assessment and division of drought hazard risk in Shiyang River basin based on GIS

YAO Yu-bi^1，2, LI Yao-hui¹, SHI Jie², WANG Ying¹, WANG Jing-song¹, DING Wen-kui³, YANG Jin-hu²

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Abstract:

Based on the meteorological observational data in Shiyang River basin from 1961 to 2010, the characteristics of spatial, interannual and decadal drought disaster distribution were analyzed. According to the dangerousness of disaster factors, vulnerability of disaster bearers, exposure degr ee of hazard-bearing bodies and capability of disaster prevention and mitigation, the assessment and regional division of drought hazard risk in Shiyang River basin were conducted based on GIS. The results showed that the frequency of drought in spring, early summer and hot summer during 1960—2011 was 21.2%～67.3%, 13.5%～61.5% and 21.2%～86.5%, respectively, and the frequency of particular drou ght in spring, early summer and hot summer in down-stream areas was wholly higher than that in up-middle stream areas. The areas with high comprehensive drought risk included Mingqin County, most part of Jinchuan District, north and central part of Liangzhuo District and east part of Yongchang County, where were located in the mid-down stream of Shiyang River basin. Among the studied counties and districts, Mingqin County located in the down-stream was the highest in comprehensive drought risk, followed by Jinchuan District, and Tianzhu County was the lowest in drought risk.

Key words: drought disaster distribution risk assessment Shiyang River basin

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