| 摘要: |
| 为有效评价区域水资源短缺风险状况，利用改进信息扩散理论确定风险评价等级，以模糊综合评价模型为基础，选取23项评价指标，对山西省水资源短缺风险进行评价研究。结果表明：太原、阳泉、忻州、晋中和山西全省的评价向量为0.4461、0.5189、0.4258、0.4019和0.3685，风险等级为3级，属于中风险水平；长治和晋城的评价向量为0.3896和0.3914，风险等级为2级，属于较低风险水平；大同、朔州、吕梁、临汾和运城的评价向量为0.4818、0.4865、0.4576、0.4082和0.4597，风险等级为4级，属于较高风险水平。模型评价结果与各地区水资源开发利用实际基本相符，可为区域水资源开发利用提供指导。 |
| 关键词: 水资源短缺 风险评价 风险等级 信息扩散理论 模糊综合评价 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:山西省水利科学技术项目 |
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| Evaluation research of water resources shortage risk based on improved information diffusion theory |
| DU Xiang-run1,2, FENG Min-quan1, ZHANG Jian-long2 |
| () |
| Abstract: |
| In order to effectively evaluate the risk condition of water resources shortage, using the improved information diffusion theory to determine the risk evaluatiog degrees, selected 23 evaluatiog indexes, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, carried out the evaluation research of water resource shortage risk for the Shanxi Province. The results showed that: The risk vectors of Taiyuan, Yangquan, Xinzhou, Jinzhong and whole Shanxi Province were 0.4461、0.5189、0.4258、0.4019 and 0.3685 respectively, the risk grade was third level which belonged medium risk level. The risk vectors of Changzhi and Jincheng were 0.3896 and 0.3914 which belonged lower risk level. The risk vectors of Datong, Shuozhou, Luliang, Linfen and Yuncheng were 0.4818、0.4865、0.4576、0.4082 and 0.4597 respectively, the risk grade was fourth level which belonged higher risk level. The model evaluation results were basically consistent with the local real situation of the water resources development and utilization, it can be provided the guidance for the exploitation and utilization of regional water resources. |
| Key words: shortage of water resources risk assessment risk grade information diffusion theory fuzzy comprehensive evaluation |
